Leonie's blog

Interest rate moves - Fixed mortgage rates from all the major banks dropped last week reflecting lowered global interest rates. This is a moving dynamic, however, with the Reserve Bank expected to increase the official cash rate (OCR) again on 29 July by 25 basis points (from 2.75% to 3.00%), followed by further gradual increases in step with the economic recovery.  Now is a good time to review your mortgage lending to ensure you are getting the best deal. I use an excellent mortgage broker who my clients have used with great feedback. If you want independent and quality advice just drop me an e-mail…it may save you a lot of money! Email me at - leonie@leoniesnook.com.

Leonie Snook, Top Wellington Real Estate Agent

Wellington property market stable - Wellington’s property market continues to attract sellers with 766 new listings in June (up 29% on June 2009)**, though overall sales volumes remain subdued with 548 sales in May (down 19% on May 2009)***.  2008 and the recession saw the property market bottom out…followed by a strong recovery over the second half of 2009…then stabilising and flattening out over the first half of 2010.  With 23 weeks of housing stock on the market (against a long-term average of 21 weeks)**, the Wellington market is skewed slightly towards buyers. For sellers it is a good time to sell, but only if you follow the right plan!  If you, or your friend, family member or work mate want to know how to get top results in THIS market, call me anytime for real estate advice (Leonie 027 664 6063).

** REINZ Property Report (July 2010)
*** REINZ Market Trends Report

Leonie Snook, Top Wellington Real Estate Agent

Economic recovery slow – Good news…the economic recovery is real and on-track (now four quarters of positive growth)! International credit rating agency Moody’s is upbeat about NZ, expecting a ‘strengthening upswing and self-sustaining economic expansion during 2011 and 2012’. Leonie says the Rugby World Cup won’t hurt either :-) . Our export sector is leading the charge, and Moody’s note ‘NZ is well placed to continue benefiting from Australia and Asia’s strong growth prospects, though at this stage the non-exporting part of the economy remains subdued’. Bad news is the recovery is very slow with some indicators easing off :-( . While business confidence is at a good level and consumer confidence has improved*, consumer spending has remained weak so far, and the tax cuts in October will be a much needed shot in the arm. Infometrics is forecasting economic growth to peak at 4.7% in the year to March 2012, before easing off to about 3%.  This is good for the medium term property market.

* UMR Consumer Comfort Index (July 2010) & National Bank of New Zealand Business Outlook Survey (June 2010).

Leonie Snook, Top Wellington Real Estate Agent

Property values fairly flat – Quotable value figures released yesterday show overall values have flattened and in some cases declined - Wellington region values for the year to May are up 6%, down from 7.1% reported for the year to April*****. This reflects that the second half of 2009 was a strong growth period recovering from the market low of 2008. Fewer listings and pent up buyer demand pushed through into prices. The early part of this year saw a surge in property listings, uncertainty about tax changes and interest rates, and the market move from a sellers market to more of a buyers market generally, with prices flattening out at a well recovered level. The Wellington market remains healthy and fairly balanced compared with the national picture (22.9 weeks of property stock on the market compared to 46.9 weeks of stock nationally, new listings up 53% on last year compared with 17% nationally, and asking prices down only -0.2% from the prior 3 months compared with –2.0% nationally******). The market is expected to continue to be flat for the short term.  In this market, the value of your agent really comes into play (or not), and its critical to pick an agent who can add greater value and demonstrate top results (www.leoniesnook.com).

* Reserve Bank of New Zealand (rbnz.govt.nz)
** The Treasury, March quarters
*** National Bank Business Outlook Survey - May 2010
**** BNZ Weekly Overview
***** Quotable Value – 3 months ending May 2010, compared to same period last year
******REINZ NZ Property Report – 1 June 2010

Economic Outlook Improving – Economic growth of around 3.5% is forecast for the next two years. The export led recovery continues with signs of a sustained recovery, in particular among our major trading partners of Australia and Asia* (New Zealand recently posting its first annual trade surplus in almost 8 years). The labour market has turned sharply (unemployment forecast at 6.2% for March 2011, down from 7.1% for March 2010**) and a net 16% of business confidence survey respondents expect to hire more people over the coming year, the strongest result since early 2002. Business confidence is strong (a net 45% of survey respondents expect better times ahead for their own business in a year’s time – the highest own activity reading since May 1999***). Residential construction is also recovering with building consents rising 5.8% over the last 3 months, compared to the previous 3 months****. The indicators are positive and shaping up nicely for sustained economic growth, all good for medium term house prices and the property market.

* Reserve Bank of New Zealand (rbnz.govt.nz)
** The Treasury, March quarters
*** National Bank Business Outlook Survey - May 2010
**** BNZ Weekly Overview
***** Quotable Value – 3 months ending May 2010, compared to same period last year
******REINZ NZ Property Report – 1 June 2010

Leonie Snook, Top Wellington Real Estate Agent

Interest Rates on the Move – The Reserve Bank lifted the official cash rate (OCR) yesterday by 25 basis points, from a record low of 2.5% to 2.75%, the first increase in 3 years. This was widely expected as the bank now starts to remove the rate stimulus, as the economic recovery is gaining hold and becoming broader*. The OCR is likely to continue to increase gradually, with economists expecting it to reach up to 5% over time. So if you are thinking of buying property or trading up, now is a good time to get in ahead of higher interest rates. If you or someone you know might be selling over the next 12 months, drop me an e-mail for a free and no obligation market opinion (leonie@leoniesnook.com).

Leonie Snook, Top Wellington Real Estate Agent

1.    Confidence levels high - Business confidence levels remain strong at net 48% for May*. This points to a strong economic recovery ahead, with the composite indicator at a level consistent with over 5% year-on-year economic growth by the end of this year. Significantly, a net 45% of survey respondents expect better times ahead for their own business in a year’s time – this is the highest own activity reading since May 1999*.  The economic outlook is very positive which is good for medium term employment and property values.

2.    Interest rate rises - June has swung around quickly and all eyes will be on Alan Bollard next Thursday for his official cash rate (OCR) and monetary policy announcement. With the economic recovery picking up pace, the Reserve Bank is expected to slowly begin to remove its monetary policy stimulus - most economists are expecting a first increase in the OCR of 25 basis points (up from 2.5% to 2.75%).  Now is a great time to review the rates and terms of your mortgage lending…are you getting the best deal you can?  I work with a preferred mortgage broker who has advised clients with great feedback.  If you would like independent advice drop me an email or visit my website…it may save you a lot of money! (leonie@leoniesnook.com).

3.    Out-promote for top prices - my clients achieve better results for a reason.  Firstly smart and adaptive marketing campaigns, great photos, property presentation and leading edge technology gets your property to stand out from the crowd…out to the masses…and more buyers through.  This is followed up with best practice pricing approaches, negotiation, and passion in spades to secure the very best result. I work with clients all over Wellington to plan their success at the outset :-). If you hear of a friend, family member or work mate who is thinking of selling (or struggling to sell) put them in touch for free and no-obligation real estate advice, or forward the link to my website (www.leoniesnook.com).  They will be pleased with the results and service...and you will receive generous referral rewards :-).

* National Bank Business Outlook Survey - May 2010 - percent expecting better business conditions in the next 12 months minus percent expecting worse business conditions.

Leonie Snook, Top Wellington Real Estate Agent, Wellington

Investment property buys

The tax rule changes were widely expected to remove claimable depreciation on investment property, though expect to see some landlords reconsidering their portfolio with some looking to sell and fewer people buying investment properties***.  I have had several enquiries at the coal face since the budget, and as an experienced investor, I can guide you through buying or selling investment property.  With more investment properties coming onto the market, look for some very good buys.  Check out my website for criteria on purchasing an investment property or give me a call for advice. 

*** BNZ Weekly Overview

Leonie Snook, Top Wellington Real Estate Agent

Export-led recovery

Figures out yesterday show New Zealand’s first annual trade surplus in almost 8 years, at $161 million for the year to April.  The Treasury, on the back of government’s budget announcements, are forecasting economic growth to reach 3.2% for the year to March 2011 (up from -0.3% for the year to March 2010) and ranging around 3.0% for the 3 years following.  Unemployment is forecast to fall to 6.2% for March 2011 (down from 7.1% for March 2010), and is forecast at 5.5%, 5.1% and 4.6% for the three years following**.  This is all good news for the property market and house prices in the medium term, and is against a backdrop of housing shortage with demand expected to exceed supply.  Buyers are out there, and now is a great time to trade up!  If you or someone you know is thinking of moving, drop me an e-mail for a free and no obligation market opinion (leonie@leoniesnook.com).

* Mercer 2010 Quality of Living Survey
** The Treasury, March quarters

Wellington has just ranked 12th (out of 221 cities) in a global poll of the world’s most liveable cities.  While we are left scratching out heads about how Auckland ranked 4th :-), having two of our major cities in the top dozen in the world is great, and of course positive for migration and our property market.  I work all over this awesome city, so if you or anyone you know wants to stay in touch with property or needs high quality real estate advice, give me a call or pass my update on (Leonie 027 664 6063).

Leonie Snook, Top Wellington Real Estate Agent